With the 2024-25 Premier League season in full swing, the Opta analyst is again here to crunch the numbers and deliver data-backed predictions for every match in Matchweek 24.
The league table is taking shape, with Liverpool leading the pack, Arsenal hot on their heels, and the relegation battle heating up at the bottom. Let’s dive into the latest predictions for this weekend’s fixtures, from a title-defining showdown at the Emirates to a crucial relegation six-pointer.
Matchweek 24: The Quick Hits
- Liverpool tipped to win at Bournemouth, but the Cherries won’t go down without a fight.
- Arsenal given the edge over Man City in a huge battle at the top.
- Chelsea, Everton, and Newcastle all backed for home wins, with Chelsea the most confident pick.
- Ipswich vs Southampton set to be a thriller, with both teams desperate for points in the relegation scrap.
Now, let’s break down the key fixtures
Saturday’s Matches: Liverpool Face a Tough Test
Nottingham Forest vs Brighton (Early Kick-Off)
Nottingham Forest need a response after a heavy 5-0 defeat to Bournemouth. However, Brighton have been resilient, avoiding back-to-back losses this season.
- Forest win probability: 40.5%
- Brighton win probability: 33.7%
- Draw: 25.8%
Expect a tight game, with home advantage giving Forest a slight edge.
Bournemouth vs Liverpool
Bournemouth have been one of the form teams since November, but Liverpool boast the longest unbeaten streak (18 games) in the league.
- Liverpool win probability: 51.5%
- Bournemouth win probability: 25.3%
- Draw: 23.3%
Despite Bournemouth’s recent success, the supercomputer favours Liverpool—but only just.
Everton vs Leicester
Both teams secured crucial wins last week in their fight for survival.
Momentum is with Everton at Goodison Park.
Ipswich vs Southampton
Both teams have conceded a league-high 14 goals in 2025, suggesting a high-scoring affair.
- Ipswich win probability: 49.5%
- Southampton win probability: 26.1%
- Draw: 24.4%
This relegation scrap is set to be an entertaining battle.
Newcastle vs Fulham
Newcastle haven’t lost a home game to Fulham in their last eight meetings.
A home win seems likely for Newcastle.
Wolves vs Aston Villa (West Midlands Derby)
Aston Villa are favourites against struggling Wolves.
- Aston Villa win probability: 47.9%
- Wolves win probability: 27.9%
- Draw: 24.2%
Sunday’s Matches: Arsenal vs Man City Headlines the Action
Brentford vs Tottenham
Brentford are slight favourites, but Tottenham will be determined to turn things around.
Man Utd vs Crystal Palace
Man Utd have struggled against Palace recently.
Arsenal vs Man City (Match of the Week)
The biggest match of the weekend.
Expect a high-quality, intense battle at the Emirates.
Monday Night Football: Chelsea vs West Ham
Chelsea are the most confident pick of the week.
Trips to Stamford Bridge haven’t been kind to West Ham.
EPL stories
- Nottingham Forest Set to Win the Premier League – soccervar.com
- Top 15 Modern Strikers for Manchester United – soccervar.com
